After 5 years studying advanced MLB statistics and programming algorithms, with the help of advanced software developers, we finally hit the jackpot!
At last! A product that gives you advanced betting analysis based on in depth match-up details for every game on the board. If you are pressed for time, you can get a smart edge with a quick glance of a page.
The #1 Baseball Betting System is back and stronger than ever. With the most advanced projections on the market, we are your secret cheat sheet to success!
If you are busy and just want a quick edge for your bets, Crunch '14 has you covered. If you want more detail as a self-handicapper, or professional MLB handicapper, you can dig deeper into each match-up.
The Basewinner Line - Coming Soon!
The Basewinner line give you the ultimate betting advantage. Using our proprietary system, the Basewinner line calculates what the 'true line' should be for each game based on advanced stats like Base Runs (BsR), Defense Independent Pitching (DIPS), Advanced Fielding Numbers and more. You can quickly scan the Basewinner line compared to the Vegas line and immediately spot the value!
Advanced 'Inside the Game' Projections - Coming Soon!
Starting Pitcher Ratings
Included are the usage ratings of xIP and expected Batters Faced for each game. Each starting pitcher’s talent is also analyzed under run rating, BB rating, strikeout rating, and groundball & fly ball ratings. Other unique identifiers are also shown. These include location frequency ratings, pitch velocity, velocity tier and pitch mix based on a simple formula that allows for a quick, easy to understand comparison.
Relief Ratings and Team Fielding Numbers
These are based on weighted statistics from each teams projected relievers for the day. Expected reliever projections are unique for each starting pitcher. These ratings are integrated with the starting pitching and team fielding rating to develop the team defensive number.
Individual Player Ratings
Each individual is rated in several offensive categories relevant to the day’s game. These ratings include run production, BB rating, strikeout rating, and groundball & fly ball ratings. They are adjusted for the projected plate appearances for each player, along with the specific percentage of anticipated at bats versus right-handed and left-handed pitching.
Individual Crunch Numbers
The individual crunch numbers are developed based on each player’s individual ratings and the ratings of the day’s opponent. Each offensive player’s specific attributes are crunched with their opponent's defensive ratings and projected usage. The result is a specific individual player calculation that is then adjusted for the Home Plate umpire factors and handedness park factors.
The personality known as the ‘Basewinner’ is a mathematical savant, 40 years old, with a background in Economics. He has spent about 1,500 hours annually for the past 10 years analyzing individual MLB games and developing predictive data sets.
He made his first baseball bet during the 1990 World Series. He bet on the A’s in all four games as heavy favorites. They were swept and he got smoked. The quest for a better predictive system began.
Since that time, he has learned the hard way many of the pitfalls of this industry. He signed up as a client with several scam artists early on in his betting career. He walked out in disgust after working two days for a highly known tout, which turned out to be eye opening experience behind the scenes on how the operation was run, which eventually became an inflection point in his career.
These experiences motivated him to handicap with accuracy and transparency. Using his background in economics and statistics, he went to work, with the goal of building an advanced prediction algorithm. Using key statistics and time consuming analysis, he has developed an extensive predictive model. Advancing on the work of Bill James, the Runs Created formula became a pivotal stepping stone on which to build a long term, consistently winning system.
8/25/14 8:56PM - 0 comments
Here are the updated probabilities to win each division and conversions to Money Line from the boys at Baseball Prospectus. They are then compared with the money lines from 5dimes.com. These numbers are for 8/25/14. There is no significant value except for the LA Angels. Th...Read More »
8/19/14 2:08PM - 0 comments
According to the Baseball Prospectus division win probability numbers, there is still value to be had when compared to the odds at 5dimes.com. Below is a chart that shows the BP divisional win probability pct's converted to Money Line numbers. These figures are then compared to the 5dimes mo...Read More »
8/12/14 2:17PM - 0 comments
The division markets continue to amaze. 5dimes odds and Baseball Prospectus divisional win pct. probabilities still clash. My advice is to go with the BP numbers. A lay the wood parlay with Baltimore, Washington and Hollywood will give you even money. Also, the Crew and the Royals (who a...Read More »